Government data shows Arizona family structure in crisis, directly ties to higher poverty and crime rates, larger Medicaid and welfare costs

PHOENIX – Arizona ranks 35th in the nation for family stability, according to the 2026 Family Structure Index (FSI), a new national report released by Center for Arizona Policy (CAP) and the Institute for Family Studies.

The Index measures the strength and stability of family life in all 50 states, offering a clear snapshot of how family trends are shaping outcomes for children, communities, and local economies.

“The most underused tool for fighting poverty in Arizona isn’t a new program. It’s a wedding ring,” said Peter Gentala, President of Center for Arizona Policy. “When marriage rises, child poverty falls, school scores climb, and welfare rolls shrink. Our state’s 35th-place ranking is not a verdict—it’s an invitation. Arizona is already climbing. The question is what we can do to help families climb faster.”

FSI evaluates three key factors: marriage rates among adults aged 25 to 54, fertility patterns, and the share of children being raised by married parents. Together, these indicators provide a reliable picture of family stability, its connection to long-term well-being, and attainability of the American Dream.

The pattern hits hard at home. Arizona-specific research from CAP shows children in non-intact Arizona families are 104% more likely to live in poverty than children in married-parent homes. Just 10% of children in intact, married Arizona homes live in poverty, compared with 38% in homes without either a mother or a father. Unmarried Arizona adults aged 25 to 54 receive welfare at more than twice the rate of their married peers—a quiet driver of the state’s two largest General Fund line items: Medicaid and human services.

Key Arizona Findings:

• 35th overall ranking in family structure, up from 39th in 2020
• 52.3% of prime-age adults (25–54) are married, vs. 65.6% in #1-ranked Utah
• 61.6% of teens live with married parents (national average: 63%)
• 1.60 total fertility rate — below the 2.1 replacement level
• 22-point poverty gap between Arizona’s highest-marriage county (Maricopa) and lowest (Apache)

“Family structure is one of the strongest predictors we have for whether children and communities are thriving,” said Brad Wilcox, Distinguished University Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia and a lead researcher on the report. “States that are doing well in this area have markedly lower levels of child poverty, as well as higher rates of economic mobility and home ownership.”

The findings point to a consistent pattern: states with stronger families tend to see lower poverty rates, better educational outcomes, and safer communities. Conversely, declines in marriage and increases in single-parent households are closely tied to long-term economic and social challenges.

Still, the report emphasizes that these trends are not set in stone, and that practical steps from policymakers, churches, and community leaders can make a real difference.

“Arizona families don’t need pity—they need partners who will get out of their way and cheer them on,” Gentala added. “Make homes affordable, keep taxes low, expand educational freedom, remove the marriage penalties buried in our welfare system, and protect the religious communities that have always been the backbone of strong families. Do that, and the Arizona Dream will be within reach of every family in this state.”

The full report is available at FamilyStructureIndex.org.